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Originally Posted by Cardus
This is faulty logic, something that you might call "sloppy."
His efforts on a synthetic surface and on turf have no bearing on his Derby bona fides. This is self-evident.
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It's also self-evident that his best race was his first start on dirt, he may well have been giving away a conditioning edge to the winner and, oh, yeah, he's likely to be a big number if he makes the race.
If that is faulty, sloppy logic, put me down.
Then again, looking for the right viable long priced horse to crash the ticket never works. I suppose the Super in last year's Derby paid $30k because Street Sense won and the two behind him were on the "short list." And I guess the Super paid $90k the year before because Barbaro won.
There is more than just one way to play the game. But believing that is probably an egregious hole in my game, as the wisest of wise men would say.