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Originally Posted by cmorioles
You obviously took my "they won't" comment to mean every single horse. OF COURSE a few will run better. Most won't.
Let us presume Colonel John wins or runs very well in the Santa Anita Derby. Exactly what price do you think you are going to get for your opinion that he might improve? 6 to 1 in a 20 horse field? Good luck with those kinds of bets long term.
What about Lady Joanne? She didn't run very well on synthetic that I remember, but I could be wrong. She didn't turn out that great on dirt either if memory serves.
That is how I will be betting.
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You didn't see Lady Joanne's maiden before and dirt races before she took a break as a two year old. She had some very good perfermances on synthetic, but improved on the dirt to win the GI Alabama. Panty Raid barely beat her in the Spinster, and then I think Lady Joanne ran 4th in the BC Distaff if I am not mistaken.
I'm getting quite a nice price on him right now in the Derby Future wagers. I'll stick to those right now. Right now, he is good enough if he stays the same and doesn't improve any from synthetic to dirt to beat most of the east coast horses.