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Originally Posted by cmorioles
Last I saw, SS wasn't winning top races on synthetic. You said maybe the horses from Cali will improve moving from dirt to synthetic. I would much rather bet the horses that showed promise and didn't run well on synthetic. The vast majority of horses winning top synthetic races are turf horses. Of course there will always be a few that handle dirt, turf, poly, whatever, but the vast majority will have a definite preference of one over the other.
So again, if they are running well on synthetic, don't expect the same on dirt, or visa versa. In the long run, thinking this way will save actual bettors a lot of money.
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That was my entire point. A horse like Colonel John has dirt breeding...not turf breeding, so who is to say he won't improve from that surface onto the dirt. He has never ran on the dirt so we don't know.
No, I said they might improve from synthetic to dirt. They haven't raced on the dirt, just synthetic.
SS was second twice on the synthetic to superior synthetic horses. He could run on the synthetic quite well, but still improved from synthetic to dirt. He almost won the BG Stakes.
I'd say a horse like Colonel John could handle the dirt and possibly improve on it based on how he moves and the fact that his breeding screams dirt.
What about Lady Joanne?
And I don't think that every horse will run the same when switching surfaces. I had Go Between in the Sunshine Millions, didn't bet Medici Code in the SA Handicap because he couldn't run on the dirt even though he was one of my favs, and bet Go Between again instead. Too bad he came up short.