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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Verlander is by far the best starter on either staff, hell he is the best starter on the majority of teams staffs. But after that the Tigers pitching is ugly. Rogers is old and injury prone and it is unlikely he will rebound beyond slightly below average pitcher at his best. Willis has slumped badly from his 2005 peak when he was outstanding. Though Baseball prospectus seems to feel that the Marlins defense was so bad that it cost him 1/2 run in era, he would still be in the 4.60 area with some other stats that are concerning. His Whip has gone from 1.13 (which is excellent) to 1.60 (which is not). He only allowed 213 hits in 236 innings in 2005 while last year he allowed 241 in 205 innings. His walks have also jumped from 55 in 05 to 87 last year despite the 31 fewer innings. His HR's allowed has also skyrocketed from 11 to 29. Playing with a better defense and in more of a pitchers park may help but there is also the fact that he isnt in the NL anymore and has DH's to contend with also. Nate Robertson is an average pitcher at best. Bonderman is potentially a pretty good pitcher who was excellent in 2006 but was not in 07 and wound up being shutdown late in the season due to a balky elbow. He along with Rogers and Robertson all missed time last year and are injury risks this year also. There is simply nothing else for starters. The bullpen is also a bit shaky and not particularly healthy. Todd Jones is easily the worst closer on an AL contender if not for Joe Borowoski. Fernando Rodney is always hurt (and is again), Zumaya has had 2 major injuries since his great 2006 and is not expected till late May at the earliest. There simply isnt much though Seay is a pretty good lefty only guy. The Tigers made a big splash in improving their lineup but they will need to score lots of runs because they arent going to hold anybody down on days that Verlander doesnt start.
The White Sox made some interesting moves in regards to shoring up the bullpen. Jenks is an elite closer who was lights out last year. Ehren Wasserman was effective in his big league debut last year and the addition of Scott Linebrink and a healthy Dotel gives them the advantage over the Tigers in the pen. I initially thought the Sox signing of Buehrle longterm was a mistake but I was probably wrong. He is what he is, a better than average innings eater who battles and when he keeps the ball down is effective. Vasquez was very good last year. Contreras was shaky last season as he gave up lots more hits than his par. He may have been a little unlucky as his BABIP (batting average balls in play) was an unusually high .335 but he is 57 years old now and supposedly is losing velocity which is a big problem for him. (p.s. -Scavs you finally made a good bet)
Danks is a question mark. He looked good early but faded badly. He is a fly ball pitcher which is a bad fit for the Cell unless you have biting stuff like Vasquez. Danks gave up 28 HR's in 139 innings which is not encouraging. Floyd is a potential average 4th starter. Charlie Haeger is an interesting knuckleballer that may get a shot. He may be the next tim Wakefield which doesn't sound exciting until you see how effective Wakefield has been for so long.
I have to give the overall edge to the Sox simply because the bullpen is a much better bet to succeed. If Willis regains his form, Rogers turns back the clock again, and Bonderman fufills his promise I would give them the edge in starters over the Sox but I doubt that will happen. Alot depends (as it always does) on injuries as neither team has much depth in the rotation and will be plugging in very weak replacements. Plus both teams traded away depth in the minors and dont have very many chips to trade in at the deadline.
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Another EASY for you with the CHarlie Haeger tout..gets shelled every time he comes up.....