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Originally Posted by miraja2
Wet weather figures to mean that there will be even more money bet on Saratoga Russell because he won on the slop in his last start at Gulfstream, and because the AQ Inner is what it is.
Personally I absolutely hate this horse in this spot, despite those factors in his favor.
Stretching a colt by Trippi out from 6f straight to a 2-turn, 8.5f race while making a bit of a class jump doesn't strike me as a recipe for victory. When you add in Violette's Sprint-to-Route numbers (56 .07 $0.40), I think this colt should probably be avoided.
The problem I see in this race is that I don't think Saratoga Russell will have anything left in the stretch, but I can't figure out who exactly will be the ones to run by him. None of them look particularly promising so, by default, I would probably land on Giant Moon if I had to pick someone.
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Be very careful about equating slop at Gulfstream to slop anywhere else. And also, sloppy tracks on the inner are often not speed favoring and if it doesn't rain anymore, it hasn't really since before midnight, the track could be changing.