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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I think you are underestimating the advantage a horse with Court Vision's plodding style has in a race like the Derby. Just looking at some recent history...
'07 Last year I'mawildandcrazyguy raced back with Street Sense early - and plugged home 4th, about a length behind Curlin and in front of a future Haskell winner.
'06 Steppenwolfer and Jazil - two of the slowest horses around plugged in 3rd and 4th - ahead of the in sharp form trio of Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint.
'05 Giacomo beat a field including Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Afleet Alex
People can talk all they want about horses like War Emblem, Hard Spun, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Congaree showing sharp speed in the Derby and running very well - they were all excellent 3yo's - they all came back to win a Grade 1 race later in their 3yo season.
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Big difference now though. We aren't going to have a bunch of cheap speed in the race like we would in the past from California and the Blue Grass. Now all those preps are playing to off the pace turf horses which is going to significantly reduce the number of pace factors in the Derby and the slow plodders will be getting up for 6th or 7th instead of 3rd or 4th.