True in the case of War Emblem and Charismatic (who upon further review, ran 3rd in the El Camino Derby on March 6th - thus misses your cutoff by a day)
False in the case of Smarty Jones, and Monarchos - they owned huge figures and were hyped.
I bet Funny Cide strongly in the Lousianna Derby (March 9th) - after his well beaten 3rd there his odds drifted up future wise - but he had run a HUGE figure at age 2
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