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Originally Posted by Dunbar
1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.
2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.
3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.
Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.
--Dunbar
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All of what you say is probably true but Ellis is such a pile of crap especially when you are competing against Saratoga, Del Mar and even Arlington. I have yet to find a horseplayer who plays for the good of the game even if it will in the long run possibly help them. Most players, even here, follow the sport and wager in a part time fashion and I just dont see those people having much interest in handicapping Ellis regardless of takeout. I tried to play some of the Ellis pick 4's because i thought it was a great idea. But honestly after a few miserable attempts I threw in the towel. Well I may just suck as a handicapper but thats another story.