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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Sorry, but I have a significantly different take on Songster, and said as much at Siro's yesterday morning. Yeah, I figured he would probably win yesterday, but only because the field was weak, but I still used an all in that race in my ( losing ) Pick-4 play. Simply put, I thought he was all dressed up with nowhere to go, and his previous two races were FAR from spectacular and merely the result of perfect trips ( coupled with Toomuchbling's bad one ). As a horseplayer, I am very careful about relying heavily on overbet favorites who are nowhere near as good as their undeserved reputations. There was little question in my mind that Songster fit that bill.
The idea that someone could watch that race, see the obvious premature move that Prado made, and then go on a tirade ( calling the trainer " incompetent " and a " dwarf " among other things ) and blame him for somehow disingenously running a " short " horse, all the while proclaiming himself to be some sort of respected person in the sport is as incredible to me as it is insulting in general. The simple truth is that if this horse was truly worth his odds he would have won in spite of the mediocre ride and he still would have won if in fact he was " short ", something I HIGHLY doubt. As I said before, I think he ran as well as he did in either of his last two races.
The person who should be mad, and unlike the author of this thread he is most likely blaming only himself, is Allen Jerkens, who almost certainly would have won the Amsterdam with Saint Damon had he run yesterday instead of Sunday. Or, perhaps, you think he is screaming something akin to " if I had only known that " expletive deleted " Albertrani was going to lie and run a short horse I would have scratched Sunday ".
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The first thing I said to Steve after the race was how stupid the trainers were who did not enter the race because they were scared of Songster. I feel he would have finished off the board had enough decent horses entered. When playing a pik-4 the odds a horse goes off at are a different story than the odds on a horse you might bet to win. Noone alive is going to take 1-5 on a horse on a win bet or even in a dd bet, there is simply no value available.
The horse had numbers and his "perfect trips" were against horses who were MUCH better than those. Knock Bling all you want but hes won nicely since then and won nicely before his last race as well. The horse probably fell at least 5 points on Thoro.
I disagree with Edgar's ride. I thought it was great. The outside part of the track was DEFINITELY the place to be and on the backside he was very careful to keep him well removed from the rail. He also postioned him right off two dueling leaders and didn't realy ask him to make the lead, the horse did so willingly. Were the fractions fast? Yes. But the Songster who had been showing up to the races this year certainly wasn't the one who showed up yesterday. he was obviously beaten at the top of the lane when a wilted el nino came back at him. Prado rode the horse exactly as you want a guy to ride a horse. Now, the horse was obviously short. That happens. To say how ready he was means the trainer was either lying or had misjudged his fitness. I believe very strongly that the trainer will use being short as an excuse at some point before his next race. Which means he either lied or was incompetent in asessing his horses' fitness.