Quote:
|
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I was just thinking the same thing.
for all tracks I have these numbers for the same period.
maiden claiming firsters 71/859, .0827%
msw firsters 57/775 .0735%
so it does show that the AQU inner numbers are far below the average.
interesting.
by contrast Tampa is doing much better with firsters.
maiden claiming firsters 18/141, .1277%
msw firsters 7/70, 10%
|
It's been this way for years on the AQU Inner, but not as bad as this year.
A couple years ago, a friend who bets nothing but NYRA MSW/MCL races (and I thought I had problems) looked at 5 years of Inner maiden races.
He came up with FTS runners winning far below expected. I believe he used ratios of races won by FTS runners vs the percentage of total starters represented by the FTS.
He looked at MCLs and MSWs going both short and long. They all underperformed vs expected. I remember FTS going long in either class type was much worse and that MSWs short was better.
Jim, I'm curious about the Tampa stats... For example, the MCLs 18/141 ... 12.7%: Does this represent FTS runners winning 18 of 141 MCL races or does it mean that 18 out of 141 MCL FTS runners won races?