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Originally Posted by Holland Hacker
I spent the day yesterday at Laurel, my first visit there. I was amazed by how the odds changed in the last few minutes before post. The only rationale I could come up with was that the simulcast $ was coming into the pools late and not through out the wagering.
In retospect it seems that looking at the odds board was a complete waste of time. On more than one occassion I went to the windows to bet thinking I was getting a horse at say 4 or 5 to 1 and when I got back to my seat after betting the horse, the odds were much more in line with what I thought they would be usually at 2 to 1 or less. It was truly bizarre.
I'm used to going to the NYRA tracks, where the odds do not seem to JUMP or DROP so much with the late $, sure they change but not from 4 or 5:1 down to 2:1 or lower.
Has anybody else noticed stuff like this at smaller tracks? Is do how do you cope and plan your wagers?
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The only way I've found to project the final odds is to use the exacta pools as a guide. As a matter of fact the exacta is actually a more precise means to determine who the public likes as the pools almost always match or exceed the mutual pool, of which the money wagered to win is roughly 65%.
The odds on the exacta can change in the last minute as well but because of the nature of the wager which is dependent upon more than one horse the money wagered on a particular horse in the top spot is more likely to be spread among three or four others below him.
If your horse is 5-1 with 3 minutes to post time and the exactas with him on top are paying close to the 5-2 favorite then count on him being closer to 3-1 at post time.