APAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACHE!
Cat unbackable in Australia Stakes dash
Story by Gary Crispe
Saturday, 16 February 2008: Top galloper Apache Cat has become so popular punters will be hard pressed to find him a betting proposition, including today's feature Group 1 Timbercorp Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley.
The good looking and seemingly bombproof chestnut
, now into flip of the coin odds for the feature weight-for-age sprint, looks the one to beat and bookmakers know it, happy to keep the screws on the gelding hoping punters will take the short odds.
While she has become somewhat maligned over the last 12 months, Miss Finland might prove the value runner in a moderate version of the race with few genuine weight-for-age performers.
The mare, prepared by David Hayes, hasn't won since her fresh-up run of the spring but that statistic is unfair alone, as she hasn't been out of the top echelon and was tested as a stayer.
The consequences seemed to be she lost her dash but back in today's sprint race she gets the chance to show her excellent turn of foot – which made her such a formidable opponent in easier seasons.
Her best few wins – the Golden Slipper, the Thousand Guineas, the Cadbury Guineas and Memsie Stakes – she displayed a superior turn of foot and hit the line hard from back in the field.
Over 1200m today, there's little doubt she will be among the tailenders but with the rail true and the cambered turn as a launching pad she can be running into the finish.
At Moonee Valley she has raced only twice and both were in Cox Plates, where she was luckless between runners the first time and raced on the pace last year so we have yet to see her charge home there.
But real Miss Finland can step up tomorrow and silence her knockers.
Hayes has opted for a rider change, which in itself won't improve her at all but may prove a masterstroke.
From barrier 11 new rider Steven Arnold will be beaten for early speed but biding his time with cover and poised to hit the camber out wide.
In the straight, when the squibs are shortening stride, there's little doubt she won't be motoring home late.
Her first-up run, over 1000m up the straight at Flemington in the Lightning Stakes, she tried to stay with them and looked under pressure a long way out but knuckled strongly to finish fifth, to her credit beaten just over two lengths by Apache Cat.
Today the extra 200m is ideal, the track should suit as generally the winners will be away from the fence when the rail is true and at the each-way odds she looks a solid bet to be running home into the finish.
There's no doubt Apache Cat is the horse to beat but he may in fact be drawn to disadvantage in barrier two.
Like Miss Finland, he will be drifting back as he won't have the early pace to go with the likes of Dance Hero and Monet Rules.
But as the field bunches jockey Corey Brown will be wanting to get off the fence and rolling into the race, much the same way Miss Andretti did last year before she “drops on them like a bomb” like racecaller Terry Bailey commented.
At even money, and the real prospect he will be needing a run, this may be the race Apache Cat is worth risking.
He has so many things in his favour he has become unbackable. He's genuine, flies early in his campaign, has drawn (seemingly) well, his form at the track is much better than appears and has an in-form jockey and trainer.
It's worth noting only two favourites have won the race in the last 10 years.
Another who looks good odds is the Lee Freedman-trained Sonic Quest.
The leading trainer and jockey Danny Nikolic both predicted a big race win for the lightly-raced gelding after he won the Group 2 Crystal Mile here last spring and their words are worth heeding.
Following that win he raced in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes and in a race full of disappointing runs he ran below his best, finishing eighth behind Tears I Cry.
It's worth noting though he excels fresh, and last campaign scored a big win at Caulfield over this journey beating Stanzout.
He is a winner at his only try at the track, his only try at the distance and has drawn for a good run on the inside for Damien Oliver.
With the right run he can feature in the finish at double figure odds and he is a horse that is expected to be improved this campaign.
Let Go Thommo is an honest sprinter who was a last start track and distance winner over Maldivian.
This is tougher again but he can only be fitter, regular rider Steven King stays aboard and he should be thereabouts again.
Stanzout, with new rider Craig Williams aboard, looks hard to hold out on his run in the Lightning when a fast finishing third.
The extra trip suits and has a good second-up record.
Dance Hero, the likely leader in the race, is obviously far better than his last start last in Listed grade behind Takeover Target.
He worked well at the track on Tuesday and did finish runner-up behind Miss Andretti in one of his two starts at the track in the Manikato Stakes.
He will give a big sight and on his best form will prove hard to catch.