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Originally Posted by tiggerv
I think I am going to single the 6 Siempre Verde. Based on all the pace and speed figures I can come up with she dominates the field. Multiple negatives though, she will have to come from off the pace and doesn't appear to pass too many horses. Turf to dirt, route to sprint, and only 2 checks in 21 starts but I think the previous trainer (4%) didn't know how to find appropriate spots for this horse. Pedigree for dirt looks OK to me. If I don't single, I think I may have to go 5 or 6 deep and include the 1, 4, 8, 9 and 12.
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I'm with you on the 4,6,8,9,12. I'm not sold on the 1. She had 4 chances here last year at similar levels and didn't finish better than 5th. It's not like she was hot and something went wrong in her last requiring the layoff. She wasn't good in any of the races and I don't see her being a different animal today.
Singling the 6 is a very daring move and may be the right move. The severe cutback in distance is probably the biggest reason I am not singling. I envision this one having too much work to do late. I just don't know about this one. Unfortunately, my opinion is not clearer after sleeping on it.
Possible singles for me....
Tomochichi in the 7th (Post hurts, but looks to be much the best to me)
Stormin Yank in the 8th (blew by some good horses in his debut)
Divine Wonder in the 9th (really seems to have his act together)
Affirmed Action in the 10th (Addition of blinks gives this one a big wire to wire shot, needs a scratch of the Albertrani)
Ticket(s) up later. My first crack at it last night was over $700, I've got some decisions to make because I am not spending that much today.