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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
This is a very interesting race. Hope you don't mind if I comment on it a bit.
I'm going to assume that Dennis's Dream is done and the winner is going to come from one of your top two choices.
They ran on the same day, same distance:
Navy Pier 1/24/08 R 6 --Fractions 22.77 46.29 58.35 1:12.40
Excellent Job 1/24/08 R 10 --Fractions 23.00 46.79 59.32 1:12.37
Race 6 is the 'better' race, given the faster fractions
Individual fractions:
Navy Pier 24.19 23.21 11.70 13.47
Excellent Job 24.34 23.20 12.39 12.90
Navy Pier gets the edge here as well, running alot faster on the turn
Additionally:
Navy Pier had an inside trip, however (maybe explaining his turn run)
Excellent Trip was pinched coming out of the gate, losing a couple of lengths, and was widest throughout, 4 path + on the turn.
Navy Pier's race was won wire to wire
Excellent Job's race winner came from 3rd, with EJ running down the lone speed just before the wire.
Hard decision, if you ask me ---especially with typically inconsistent cheap horses. But one of these 2 will win and the price should be okay.
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Great analysis TFM - based strickly on current form, I may have to give the nod to NP. As hard as it is for me to bet Mary Bennett to win a race, the horse certainly has made a nice correction in form under her care. EJ seems to be going the wrong way since Slomkowski claimed him for 10K - and either doesn't care for the Tampa surface or is out of form - either way he should be able to get it done for 6250, like you said a tough call to be sure...