The 5,7,14 should all go for broke on the pace.
It should be a slightly easier pace than Bujagali's last race. Last time Coa took a tight hold prior to turn1, rather than go with the cheap speed (goodkat). It is debatable whether the tactics hindered the talent that Bujagali has shown on turf.
This time they will be entering the turn by the time the pace is established. If they fire, Bujagali will have to continue with a cheap escort up the backstretch. lol.
Bravo isn't a superstar but he has a solid horse here in Holiday Trippi. The course dynamics favor Bujagali. There is only about 12 or 13 seconds from gate to turn1 @ mile, as opposed to 18 seconds in an 8.5 furlong turf. Bujagali breaks alertly. Bravo will have to make sure Trippi breaks straight here. Bujagali will get perfect position.
Tiverton is an interesting element of this pace simply for the fact that he doesn't usually run in races with quite as much 1st quarter pace as we will see today. He does have quickness and tactical/positional speed, but I would guess that he will not set the pace. Bujagali will most likely out-break him, and that the best case for Tiverton would be sitting a nice rail trip in behind the speed. Castro doesn't want to see Drums of Thunder shooting the rail. Tiverton tends to flatten in the stretch, but does add to the middle pace.
My gut says Bujagali will weaken and finish out of the exacta. I could be wrong.
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