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Originally Posted by moodwalker
I'm not sure why they don't run more. But I don't think it is because they couldn't.
I respect your opinion that Angara's campaign might have taken its toll on her.
But I felt that some races just didn't "set up" for her and/or she cycled out of form last year. The thought of Biancone "running her into the ground" never entered my mind and I wondered why you stated that unless you knew she was broken down after last year or something.
I would prefer that horses run every 14-21 days in a campaign and then get a lay up. It seems to me that this is impossible due to our year long racing season in America, and maybe that is why trainers space the races out so much.
Another opinion I have on the long layoffs between races with "good horses" is the fear of losing due to an impact later in a career at stud.
Maybe the owners of really nice horses don't want them having blips on their record if they can help it now due to the current breeding market.
I could be way off on that though, let me know your opinion of this one Richi..
If you had a really nice colt who had won 3 out of 3 and looked to be pretty tough, would you fret about him losing a race/races due to the impact on his stud fee at a later date.
Let me clarify that I wasn't trying to offend you with my Angara statements, it just never entered my mind that Biancone was abusing her last year and I didn't understand why you thought that. I think he was just maximizing her profit margin with all of the checks she picked up, and I don't think she will earn as much this year..even with the G1 yesterday.
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Horses can't run every 14-21 days. Claiming horses can't even run that often. Horses can't even run once every 3 weeks. If a horse ran once very 3 weeks, they would have 17 races at the end of the year. How many horses run 17 times a year? You rarely even see claimers run more than 12 times a year. Not only does it knock horses out when you run them that often, but there's no way to keep them sound if you run them that often.
Once in a great while you will see a freak like Smarty Jones who is an absolute "iron horse" who can take punishment than most horses. He kept running every three weeks and then even ran on two weeks rest in the Preakness. But even Smarty Jones had a limit. After the Preakness, he didn't look like the same horse. Coming back in two weeks was the last straw. He was knocked out. I got to watch him train in the morning because of shows like "The Works" and the other networks that would briefly show him galloping in the morning. He looked so sharp Derby week and Preakess week too. But after the Preakness, he didn't look the same. He wasn't nearly as sharp in the mornings. He didn't have the same intensity. He was tired.
The connections of Bernardini were very smart. If they would have run him in the Belmont, there is a very good chance it would have completely ruined him and he would have never been the same. It was tough enough stepping up to a 1 3/16 race coming out of a one mile race on only 3 weeks rest. If they would have brought him back in 3 weeks again to run 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont, he would have been finished.
Regarding your question about whether owners run their horses less because of a fear of losng, that's not really how I would categorize it. If you have a valuable horse, you obviously do need to consider which races would optimize your horse's value the most for breeding. A horse is going to have the greatest value, if they win some big races. So if you have a really good horse, you are going to point to the big races. You want to come into the big races at 100% and most trainers know that a horse is more likely to be 100% if he has plenty of rest between races. If you're pointing to a really big race like the BC Classic, you want him to peak for that race. For a 1 1/4 mile race like that, you don't want to come in off too long of a layoff or you might not be fit enough. On the other hand, you don't want the race to be your 3rd race in 6 weeks either. I think that most good trainers feel that 5 weeks between races is pretty ideal. If you have to ship somewhere, then you may need more time. For example, if we ship a horse all the way to Kentucky for a race and the horse runs a hard race, we're probably going to give him at least 6 weeks off if not more.
Oracle is a guy that totally understands how important it is to give horses plenty of time between races. What's funny is that me and Oracle handicap totally differently. He uses the sheets and I don't use any type of speed figures. However, after years of observation, we have both come up with the same conclusion: Horses need plenty of time between races and if you don't give them enough time, they will not stay in form for very long and they will not stay sound for very long.