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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....
I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.
Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.
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There is no doubt that he was not overwhelmingly fast as a 2yo, and would need to improve quite a bit to win a G1 Classic, but they all do at this point.
It just seems like a big crapshoot to me right now.
You are absolutely right about him having a very good trip at CD, but Blackberry Road's was pretty good too, and that one saved a lot of ground compared to Anak Nakal who was 4-wide around the second turn.
His pedigree also points to a colt that could certainly improve with both age and added distance. His connections also seem pretty high on him and since he already has the earnings to get in, they can chart whatever course they choose.
I am not going to place a future wager on him, b/c the price probably won't be right, but if I had a free $25 wager like Scav, I think he would probably be the way I would go.
I think the other interesting horse in this futures process might actually be War Pass. His pedigree and running style sure don't look like a Derby winner, but if enough people feel this way - or if they just fall in love with whomever wins this Saturday - might it actually be possible to get a halfway decent price on seemingly the most talented animal in the crop?