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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.
He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.
* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?
* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...
By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)
Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.
* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.
The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.
All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.
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That 97 BSF was, I believe, the highest figure for a 2 yo going 2 turns on a fast track.
I like him a lot too. Heard he's no go for the FG race.