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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Of course KG is right that you can't just completely dismiss Daaher's race out of hand. But, at the same time, he also very clearly did not run " his " race. It is in determining why that was, in any case, that matters in the future. But, his effort yesterday was also very clearly not indicative of his true talent. It's sort of semantics.
Maybe it was the early pressure that was completely his undoing, though considering the way the track had been playing both Friday and Saturday, and the way Daaher effectively chucked it relatively early, any reasonable race watcher would probably come to the conclusion that Daaher's effort was more than just a case of a need the lead type that will wilt with early pressure going two turns.
Of course one can say you need to weigh the many possibilities in racing, and that's one of the reasons the game is endlessly fascinating, but it is in one's actual ability to correctly analyze these possibilities that will ultimately determine how successful they are in predicting the future. I may well not be running to play Daaher in any similar scenerios in the future, and his connections may agree and avoid them, but I also wholeheartedly believe that for whatever reason Daaher did not run " his " true race yesterday.
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Hindsight is 20/20 and I sincerely hope any of the great folks on this board that believed Daaher was an opportunistic winner of the Cigar Mile that could not get a route of ground while running quick early fractions prospered. I cannot imagine how something didn't go wrong yesterday. While he went fast early, he was on the best part of the track and numerous horses who looked terrible on the turn found another gear in the stretch (Referee in the 7th) while they were on the rail. Maybe Daaher is not a two-turn horse and maybe he can't contest early fractions and stay, but I'm definitely willing to give him another chance.
Is it such a tragedy if he's maybe just a stalking/pace-making miler?
NT