Why could he not possibly believe?
He got invaded in 1990?
We TOLD him we were going to invade...

I dont get the reasoning at all.

And just dont get how you know
what he believed and did not believe.
For all we know, he knew we would invade
and knew we would get into a quagmire and
never find him.

Playing the hindsight game is too easy
and done far too often.