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Originally Posted by Kasept
I'm trying to formulate an early Top 10.
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I could come up with one - but I would have no confidence at all in it - and would probably feel very embarressed if I had to look at it again in May.
And for that reason alone, I won't do one yet.
If I wanted to put one together right now, my strategy would be to use the dominant runners from the BC Juvie 1st and 2nd. I'd give a slight edge to Pyro because I see him as the better projection of the two, and it's obvious that a one-dimensional speed horse like War Pass will have to be so overwhelmingly superior to win an almost always fast paced 10 furlong race, where he will be very doubtful to get a free pass on the lead.
Beyond the top two, I'd focus in on horses who best fit the profile of a Derby winner to fill out the list.
They have the past performances of the past 15 Kentucky Derby winners up on DRF's website under the Derby section - 12 of the last 15 ran a Beyer of 94 or greater between Sep 11th of there 2yo season and Jan 13th at age 3. Ten of the 15 did it in a two and a half month span between Sep 19th and Dec 18 of there 2yo seasons.
The 3 out of the 15 who failed to do so were Grindstone, Charismatic, and War Emblem. Two of those were VERY aggressively trained Lukas horses, who's careers were both finished by the end of the triple crown series. The other one, War Emblem, wasn't even going to run in the Kentucky Derby until Baffert stepped into to buy the horse privately right before the Derby.
Basically, I'd want to fill slots 3-through-6 out with what I believe are the four best horses that fit the profile above.
As for slots 7-through-10, I'd look for lightly raced projection type horses, preferably something out of So. Cal. who would have a pedigree much more slanted to dirt racing than turf racing.
A horse like Court Vision does have the kind of plodding Imawildandcrazyguy and Steppenwolfer-esque running style that most often is associated with longshots who outrun their odds in the Derby. He also does have a very nice pedigree, and good 2yo route foundation under him....
However....would anyone really to take a horse who's 2yo figures are inferior to Giacomo's? Especially such a high profile horse.
Now, if we had to do a top 10 list on who was most likely to run a plodding 4th in the Derby....Court Vision would loom large.