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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I went back to look to make sure - it was Feb 13th of last year when I posted that there were only 7 horses who had any chance at winning the Derby.
They being:
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Street Sense
Ravel
Adore the Gold
Great Hunter
With today Feb 1st of 2008 - I can honestly say that I think there are probably over a hundred horses - maybe as many as 150 or 175 horses - who right now couldn't be ruled out as possible Derby winners.
If I had to assign someone the most likely Derby winner - it would be Pyro - who just so happens to be the future book favorite last I looked - and just so happens to be a nose away from being winless in his career.
You REALLY get the feeling that there is a very good lightly raced dirt horse out in California....but with those surfaces there, you can't project with any kind of exactitude who it might be.
It's pretty interesting to think how all but a small handfull of horses at about this time last year were impossible prospects for the Derby - and this year - just about anything with four hooves, a tail, and a pulse can't totally be ruled out.
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D/S,
Hadn't thought about it until reading this, but you're right... I cannot recall a year in recent memory where there was NO feel at all for strong, serious Derby prospects other than the most tacit, decent juvy runners. Like you, I had great vibes for Hard Spun and Street Sense as KD hopes last year at this time, and was won over by A. G. Saturday, Dominican and Tiago as the Spring wore on.
I'm trying to formulate an early Top 10, but it hasn't been easy... If pressed for 5 right now..?
War Pass
Denis of Cork
Bordeaux Bandit
Make the Point
Into Mischief
Can only assume that the one root cause behind the confusion, or lack of clarity, is the synthetic surface issue.. especially West Coast-wise. The jump up/jump back performances as racing moved through DMR-HOL-SA since last July has made it impossible to know who is a talent and who isn't.