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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Everything every trainer does is not the right thing. They will all tell you this. However, when a trainer has a substantial resume of success it seems a little presumptuous for any of us to think we know better than them.
Commentator was 4:5 when he ran in the Forego. You show me a trainer that doesn't run a horse that is 4:5 in a Grade 1 and I will show you a moron. Commentator was 9:1 in the BC Sprint. You tell me the turf race that was more prestigious where he would have been a shorter price. One could argue that the best course of action is to consider your equity and go where it's highest. Especially when you have a horse that you pray can stay sound for even a short period of time.
Frankly, the person who thinks Indian Blessing should be pointing for the KY Derby is in absolutely no position to recommend the course of any horse.
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Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.
Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.
Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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