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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
And what makes Jet Setting a " bad favorite? "
CT Phone Home is hopeless.
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Not to a 'capper who takes patterns as very important. CT paired up numbers and moved forward last time. It is logical to expect a forward move again whether it will be enough of a move is debatable...so hopeless is a bit of a stretch with these.
Some of us are reasonably successful supplementing our knowledge of PP's with other methods. BTW seems to be very influenced by trip handicapping....Hooves is more of a home run typeof swinger...
I agree with the methodology about horizontals that playing completely against a favorite is a likely heart breaker so I wont belabor that.
But my own method......1) establish a likely peformance necessary too win a race with PP's 2) Establish horses likely style (assuming a change isn't likely...at times faulty but useful if holds) 3) Suggest winners based based on race shape.....speed holding,track with closing advantage etc.. 4) Read sheets and other intrarace tools for comparasions for a winner 5) Assess for trainer angles or horses for courses....less so "track bias" as happens less than is reported..
If a single horse fits 3 or more..then designate horse deserving favorite....if each catagory predicts a different winner respect the odds and spread out for P3's and 4's looking for a price.
But in the words of the late great Jimmy V.......It's all about survive and advance!!!
It aint rocket science but IMO you need a broad brush here as nothing is for every race on every day...