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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's obvious if you do your work.
There's a handicapping method which I just don't understand......see who the favorite is and bet against it. I see people doing this, in a confused attempt to be a wiseguy, and it makes no sense whatsoever. None. And, it's obviously a recipe for disaster.
This 5th race is a great example of a cut and dried situation, and it is more important in this case with a carryover, in that there are pretty much only two horses that can win, with the Jerkens horse a distant third possibility that maybe you back up with if you spend enough. Nobody else can be even remotely reasonably expected to win and your money has to be better spent elsewhere.
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I agree that some people seem to bet to beat the favorite all the time, and sometimes it just doesn't make sense. Not all favorites are created equally.
I just think in this particular case, if people "do their work" the Jerkens horse looks to me like about a 7/2 shot here. I know you disagree, but if she goes off at 5/1 or higher, I think she might be the way to go.