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Originally Posted by AeWingnut
I believe your odds are too simplistic. The true odds are greater because you are forgetting that nearly half the decks was being delt out to the other 8 or 9 players. I may have failed to mention that this time, it was a tournament. I believe there are intentional 2nd best hand delt to eliminate players. I have quit playing online. The bad beats were just way over the top.
Maybe PokerStars' figures for ever person that hates over the top bad beats, there are 2 others that love it. My friend has done very well at Poker Stars but decided he can't stand the bad beats any more.
He was in a tournament that pays down 3 places. They are down to 4 players. I've already explained that the true odds that someone will have a higher pocket pair is .009% Less than 1 percent (when you have Queens). So what are the odds that you are dealt pocket Aces another player is dealt pocket Kings and another is dealt pockets 10s? (I haven't taken the time to look this one up.) Friend had the pocket Aces didn't want to slow play and went all in. He got two callers the pocket Kings and the pocket 10s. The odds that someone will get a set is pretty good but the odds that everyone has a pocket pair is ridiculous. (ofcourse the guy with the 10s won.) I know that bad beats are part of the game but the frequency and the amount of improbable hands are not part of the game. They are part of a program and knowing the program is the only way some people could play their hands the way they play. I've seen where people go "all in" when they need runner runner to win. Going all in on a draw is a bad play that I haven't seen anywhere more often than PokerStars. I can't afford to study the program.
They aren't getting the money from me and 2 of my friends.
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"I believe your odds are too simplistic. The true odds are greater because you are forgetting that nearly half the decks was being delt out to the other 8 or 9 players."
2 cards x 9 players (it would actually be 7 players at pokerstars) = 1/2 the deck? your problem may be that you're innumerate.
the folded cards dealt to any player not in the hand are random and unknown, the same as cards remaining in the deck. the odds analysis i did was the standard one you see in any book on poker.
"So what are the odds that you are dealt pocket Aces another player is dealt pocket Kings and another is dealt pockets 10s?"
pretty low in the next hand i play. inevitable if i play long enough.
"I know that bad beats are part of the game but the frequency and the amount of improbable hands are not part of the game."
improbable things should happen in a predictable pattern. gotcha.
"They are part of a program and knowing the program is the only way some people could play their hands the way they play.I've seen where people go "all in" when they need runner runner to win."
or they are bad players that got lucky. that's the tax you pay for sitting at a table with players you can predictably make a profit from.
you may be expecting too much from your bankroll. try lower stakes until you are profitable and then climb the ladder.
you won't find any other website is different. the complaints you make are made by players universally at the sites i've played. maybe the whole industry is a scam. more likely most players are unequipped emotionally to deal with losing bad beats and imprint those more than they do the times they are advantaged as an underdog.
i like online because the rakes are lower and there is no tipping expected (a further drain in live play).
i've had horrendous bad streaks. taking a break is a good idea. after that though, start looking at your game.