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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I would rather take a shot with two dudes in a horse suit than that horse.
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Well basically....yeah.
In a related matter, I think one of the sometimes overlooked ways to do these future wagers is to do the same sort of pedigree analysis someone might do for a 2yo MSW. Look at the horse's pedigree and in addition to looking at the horse's stamina influences (which everybody does) try to see if this horse is likely to be fast developer. Giant Moon is a perfect example. His dam-side pedigree is tailor made to produce a horse that is a fast-developer. The three stallions in the most important positions in his dam-side pedigree (Capote, Deputy Minister, and Lord Durham) were ALL 2yo champions. Capote, meanwhile demonstrated ability to sire precocious 2yos (Boston Harbor etc).
His sire, meanwhile (Giant's Causeway) is a very versatile sire, but he too was a G1 winner at 2, and some of his very best runners have been top-notch 2yos (Shamardal, First Samurai etc).
So basically Giant Moon has a pedigree which indicates that it is LIKELY that this horse will - if he has any ability at all - be good as a 2yo. That is good news if you are looking at him in a 2yo MSW, but in my opinion makes him a bad bet in a future pool. Obviously this pedigree does not preclude him from continuing to improve in the months ahead, but it does mean that he is
more likely to have already reached his peak than a colt whose pedigree is less geared towards early development. Now in Giant Moon's case, there is also the tiny matter of him not being very fast. I use him here just as an example.
I don't really play futures, but if I did, my advice would be to only play horses that are very long odds, that seem likely to be able to go 9f and beyond, and whose pedigree hints that they are not likely to have already reached their peak.