I think early win pool money that isn't supported by late action or more importantly by the exacta and prior race(s) horizontals is pretty meaningless. 80% of the win pool is put through the last couple minutes; why would early money be any kind of indicator at all? Does "the barn" need to bet early in order to get to the paddock? If the barn horse is live, they'd be foolish to splash early. At least if any sort of early money theory is true.
The real early money has been bet 30-60 minutes before and is in the DD and p-3 will pays for final legs.
My own feeling is the Exacta pools lead the win pool to some extent but I've never seen anything published.
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