Quote:
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Originally Posted by Kasept
There was a piece in Thoroughbred Times recently that explains the late odds changes (yet again). I'll try to find it. It has to do with the crush of wagering that comes in the last couple of ticks. Something like 70% of pools arrives in the final 3 minutes of wagering which is re-tabulated every 45 seconds. That's why you get in-race odds changes after the bells.
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The issue is the 9/29/07 TTimes and focused on the efforts of the Wagering Transmission Protocol working group as part of the TRA's meeting at the American Royal (of all places) in Kansas City in September.
Using Del Mar '07 as the example, the TRPB found the following:
Handle % accrued/MTP:
3 MTP: 49.4%
2 MTP: 60.7%
1 MTP: 72.6%
0 MTP:
84.6%
OFF:
95.3%
10-sec. force: 99.5% (Forced odds cycling 10 seconds after gates open)
"Most TRA tracks have implemented forced odds cycling 10 sec. after wagering closes. But win odds will STILL change since about 7% of handle is generated within the final seconds before the bell. In some cases 50% of the pool comes in the final 120 seconds but odds are updated every 45 seconds. More frequent updates during the final minutes would make late odds changes look less nefarious."
J. Curtis Linnell, Director of Wagering Analysis for the TRPB