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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Santana's peak four years back followed by three years where he wasn't quite as good got me to thinking about the last two pitchers in baseball to have seasons where they were unhittable (Maddux and Pedro). I decided to compare their peak season with the next three seasons and then with the four seasons following. The theory being the performance over those four years would be telling as to what you can expect from Santana the next four years. Here are the numbers:
Greg Maddux
Peak Year (1995) 19-2 181 Ks 1.63 ERA 0.81 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-8 184 Ks 2.38 ERA 0.99 WHIP
Avg Following Four 18-9 154 Ks 3.07 ERA 1.16 WHIP
Pedro Martinez
Peak Year (2000) 18-6 284 Ks 1.74 ERA 0.74 WHIP
Avg Next Three 14-4 203 Ks 2.27 ERA 0.97 WHIP
Avg Following Four 11-7 151 Ks 3.57 ERA 1.09 WHIP
Johan Santana
Peak Year (2004) 20-6 265 Ks 2.61 ERA 0.92 WHIP
Avg Next Three 17-9 239 Ks 2.99 ERA 1.01 WHIP
Avg Following Four ??????????
Santana's dropoff isn't quite as sharp as Maddux and Pedro but his peak also wasn't as high to drop off of. Realistically though, even on a lesser trend, he could easily be a 3.50 ERA 1.10 WHIP guy for the next four years, certainly the numbers of a very good pitcher. But are they the numbers of a $20 million+ per year pitcher and possibly committing to him for far longer than just four years? The biggest advantage Santana has is he was 25 when he had his peak season. Pedro was 28 and Maddux was 29. Maybe no one else cares but I found the comparison interesting.
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I think on one one hand most people dont realize how good Santana is compiling his numbers in Minnesota as opposed to a guy like Peavy who piches in Death Valley. The number of innings that he has on his arm at a relatively young age would make you worry. He is a true ace but signing pitchers to huge contracts has not been a great move in recent times or I guess ever. Haren, while not as good or consistent may be the better option simply bcause the contract situation is much more settled. But if Santana goes to the Red Sox in the deal proposed for Lester, Crisp, the really good minor league SS and another player it would be a great deal for the Sox. Lester is probably at best a #3, Crisp has little value to the Sox with Ellesbury, and the minor leaguers may or may not pan out. Meanwhile the 1,2 punch of Santana and Beckett would be almost unbeatable in the post season, not even factoring in the other Red Sox young pitchers and a bullpen ending with Papelbon