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Originally Posted by copying
Better watch the replay again. Ground saving trip, never lost momentum when the 1 horse (Warning Zone) was backing up, cut the corner home ala Street Sense, finished well - just wasn't good enough. From the 1/4 pole to the finish, following the same path, he made up 1 length on Medici Code - not enough to catch him - let alone the winner.
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Take a close look at the chart I've attached for the race. While I agree that visually he doesn't appear to gain on the 2nd horse once he gets clear very late, he, in fact, gains 1 1/4 lengths from the stretch call to the wire. He also, more importantly, loses 2 lengths worth of position on the turn, when the 10 goes from about 1 length behind him to over 2 lengths ahead (this is between the 6F and 1M split) because his jock is more aggressive than Samyn. Moreover, unlike the 11, who had a clear run from the turn to the wire, and is the one that cuts the corner entering the stretch, BH has at least a second's worth of waiting time in the early stretch. By the time he gets clear, the race is over. NOBODY would gain on the top 2 at that point. He ran a 22.72 last quarter and would probably have run faster, if he had a clear run early stretch. Too bad HOL doesn't have a stretch time so that we can see whether he was slowing down or accelerating the last 1/8th.
Of course, differing opinions/interpretations is what makes this game so interesting.