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Originally Posted by Scav
Guys, gonna have to take a pass on the rest of this contest. I need to focus on some other things for a while now and won't have time to continue.
Pertaining to this, I actually have some respect for the TVG people now because it is REALLY this is hard to do. I have no idea what would have happened in the long run but I think a decent conculsion to this is that $50 is a low level ticket into the type of pools that we are trying and the type of races that are being contested. At the larger tracks you can be comfortable with putting $90-$150 and getting some coverage and it paying decent. At small tracks where the talent level really varies, I wouldn't recommend that type of ticket size. Look at Churchill's recent PK4 results and the payouts, and put them with what they paid to win, it is out of control how well they paid IMO.
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The frequency of hitting the bet is also a function of the size of the fields. I am not privy to the average field size of NY racing, but if you make the assumption of 8 starters per race the number of possible combinations is 4.000. If field size is 10 starters then possible combinations is 10,000. A $50 ticket betting into an average field size of 8 means the average person would hit a ticket every 80 "chances" (200 for 10 horses). You can also make certain assumptions that you may be twice as likely to hit the wager "vs the average" based on experience, info available, etc to come up with "your probability". Bottom line is that it should not be a real surprise that after 30 or so tickets a ticket has not been cashed based on such a small sample size.