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Old 11-16-2007, 10:09 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Been kicking the idea around of doing this myself. Was wondering if anyone else would be interested in participating.

Would like to handicap pick4 sequences using both a higher dollar/ multi ticket approach as well as a small ticket approach. Thought being that comparing results over time should give guidance as to which approach is more profitable.

Doing it as a group would get the sample higher much faster and if anyone participated enough, they could draw their own conclusions from thier plays alone.

Was thinking folks could post a pick4 play (large/multi and small) for same sequence at any track, whenever they feel like it. Those plays woud go into the sample (1 large, 1 small).

Would look at ROI of each if/when we got a decent sample size.

First would be to set "small" and "large" paramaters and see what tracks would be eligible. Although, I'm not sure if this is the best time of year for this.

Make any sense? Too much effort involved?
A small ticket approach would likely take forever to yield anything statistically meaningful. A large multi-way ticket might yield statistically meaningful results, but that doesn't mean it's better than the small ticket approach.

If Ellis does the 4% takeout thing again, I would participate, since I'd be betting that anyway.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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