He wouldn't be quick enough on firm ground, but from all accounts there is no chance of firm ground. If it's good or softer it will help him a lot.
Weight stops trains, and he hasn't really got anything on his back.
He won over both ten and twelve furlongs at the beginning of the year and i think people just assume he is slower than he actually is, just because he won the Queens vase.
In the Leger he set a really good gallop, and if he hadn't have stumbled, i still think he would have won. Even with that stumble, if that race was over two miles , he probably would have got back up close home.
I'm a complete novice when it comes to Oz racing, and i know very little about the others. I know Mahler will stay, i don't think he is THAT slow and he has a very good racing weight. My worry is the jock, who i have had a few bad reviews of from people into their Aussie racing.
My heart is probably ruling my head, but he will still be my selection.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan 
and now we murderers because we kill time
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