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Originally Posted by Pointg5
I was thinking, maybe it's a little bit too simplistic to decide what a 1st time starter will do based on pedigree, sure there's precocious sires, that's true, but I would say the single most important factor when handicapping 1st time starters is the Trainer. Even if a horse is considered to be by a "precocious sire", it doesn't matter, unless the trainer is capable or has it in their "training style" to have them ready. I guess you could use Mandella and Baffert as two opposite ends of the spectrum in this regard. Also, if a horse is really talented and considered to be at the top of his age group, he should have the "talent" to beat some of the lesser of his age group that might show up in a msw even though it may be a shorter distance and he is bred to run longer, so pedigree really wouldn't help you in that situation.
I would say genetics, not family tree(ripped off of Pgardn) would have more of a say so if a horse can handle the slop or turf in a first time starter.
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like i said, it's one tool. to go purely on precocity while ignoring a trainers lack of luck with a 2 yo would be folly. also, just because a horse is by a 'turf' sire doesn't mean he'll like it....just like a horse with the fastest time at that distance might not be the winner. no one thing will guarantee you pick the winner. all things can/should be considered...