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Originally Posted by miraja2
I don't think it makes a big difference who is in the irons.
IF Tiago takes a step forward, he MIGHT finish 3rd or 4th, but I see no scenario in which that horse is in the exacta. He is a nice horse, but there are five horses in the race that are - on paper - simply better than him, and there is no factor that stands out as a reason why that would change on Saturday.
For me he is for filling out the bottom of exotics only.
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The horse just seems too slow to factor in for any meaningful placing. I think you're totally spot on in thinking that with a step forward from where he's at now -- he MAY have a shot to crack the super -- but given that nearly all of the entrants are faster than he is, and that Monmouth is going to play against his type given he has no discernibly noticeable turn of foot, he seems up against it.