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Originally Posted by brockguy
trainers can never be 100% certain that a horse is fine and well. Rio looked a different horse today than last time out or in Ireland. He never seemed to be travelling, and his finishing kick was not there at all. He looked a tired horse at the end. He had 3 weeks from G1 in ireland to the G1 in France, then just had 2 weeks between that and today.. Some horses can take it, most can't..
Im not arguing that Rio is better than NA at all, but to say that youve been proved right that he cant reverse form with NA is not correct. You could be spot on that NA improves much more than Rio this winter, but I am not entirely sure that the Guineas will be a cakewalk for NA.
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I agree that the Guineas will not be a cakewalk for New Approach, but it won't be Rio that makes him race for it. I was concerned that New Approach hit a flat spot for quite a long time today, which made me worry slightly about the Guineas. Don't forget though that the Dewhurst wasn't the plan at all for him up until two weeks ago. It was some achievement today.
I would be worried about a large field in the Guineas next year as this horse doesn't like being crowded. He's still a big baby. He had to be ponied down to the start today, did you see that? He's still very immature, which is why i think he will be a superstar next year.
I was very impressed with the second today, and he will be a real danger in the Guineas. Raven's Pass let me down a bit today (i actually thought he'd win). I left the race alone from a betting point of view. The winner and the second are both out of the top draw, and i can see the Fast Company keeping much more pace than New Approach next year. Out of all the horses NA has faced this year, the horse in second today is the only one likely to turn the form around.