Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.
This Filly is getting good at exactly the right time, displays a strong closing kick in a race seemingly overloaded with speed, has handled two turns before, a fact which some of the choices in here cannot stake claim to, and will likely be ignored in the mutuels.
Examine her races carefully.
First try was on 8/2 at Saratoga in a 62,000 msw going 5 furlongs on WF dirt with Desormeaux up. Exits the gate at 27-1 and runs a decent 4th behind a few familiar names in Irish Smoke and Syriana's Song. This horse took no $$$$ in a 7 horse field with KD in the irons. What would she have gone off at otherwise, 40-1?
Second try was on 8/26 at Saratoga in another 62,000 msw, this time going 6 furlongs on a good track, with Desormeaux off and Castellano up. At this point it was clear that Desormeaux was having an incredible meet and yet the mount Desormeaux was on that day, a Matz trained horse floated up from the morning line while Rhythm floated down going off at 5-1. She ran 5th that day, closing from last at the head of the stretch, in a big field, well back though, screaming for more distance.
This is where it gets interesting.
Third try was on the Belmont Turf going 1 1/16 in a 53,000 msw, Castellano still up. 10-1 morning line........first flash is at 7/5. 7/5??? Granted, the switch from the quirky Saratoga dirt to the Belmont turf, coupled with the significant increase in distance would surely be a help....but 7/5? Somebody in the know was dropping some em-oh-en-e-y on this horse......and they were right. She made a strong move at the head of the stretch, off at 7-2, and withstood a late charge from what turns out to be a REALLY good filly in Country Star, who you might recall went down to Keeneland and smashed her maiden with a resounding Grade I win over the likes of Irish Smoke, A To The Croft, and Grace Anatomy. (As a side note, the horse that ran third that day, Mushka, runs in the 4th today at Belmont, her first race since that day)
Next out was going a mile on the dirt in the Frizzette. She runs a clear 2nd to 3/5 monster Indain Blessing, who had things on her own terms that day.
Backseat Rythym will be Reynolds only starter over the two days so the undivided attention should make her feel like a queen. She is sitting on a career performance. She will likely be double, even triple the odds of Smoke, Croft, and Anatomy. Backseat Rhythm will be the DEFINITION of overlay.
The distance will be right, the pace will be right, the price will be right.
Look for Backseat Rythym to blow up the toteboard and get the day started with a bang. I'll be backing up the Brinks truck.
Good Luck!
May a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window, and in this case, the tax window.
Later.
ED
|