[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.

It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?

You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"

And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?

Crikey.

Not criticizing him at all. I'm certainly no better at this than he or anyone else is. Just asking at what point does trusting your own handicapping ability stop and taking the word of someone else's system take over? If Tiago was running off and hiding from fields by 20 lengths and setting track records in the process of earning those 130's, that would be different. But if after watching him struggle to beat Awesome Gem and knowing what Awesome Gem is, if the number came back really high, I would take it with a grain of salt. I'd do the same thing if I watched Curlin beat Lawyer Ron in the JCGC and the number came back with a 105. The numbers are just based on one man's system of how to judge the races. Not saying that the system is good or bad but it shouldn't take the place of your own handicapping. If your handicapping tells you that you like a horse, don't let someone else tell you that you don't.

Look at the Sprint. I love Midnight Lute. Always have. But I don't like him to win the Sprint, even though by the numbers, he far and away towers over the field. I believe that after his 124 figure, the next highest in the field is a 113 from Idiot Proof. That's a huge advantage. But that advantage won't make me take what I've seen with my own eyes and play a horse that I don't like to win the race.