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Originally Posted by Scav
We will talk about this race first, in terms of TG. The others are such a cluster
AGS: AGS is gonna be a hot play because of his 2nd back performance at Monmouth, this we know. I don't really question his last race because Pletcher is just not getting his monster performances that he is used to. He runs that Monmouth race and he competes but I get the feeling those two efforts (2nd/3rd back) might have taken alot out of him.
AwesomeGem: A faster man's Hard Spun, except this horse just can't get into the winner circle. Would like to see Craig Dollase get a win but think he is climbing an up hill battle
Curlin: Another amazing horse with a great sheet with obvious recent care and caution with his races. Got back to his top in his last race and is co-2ndfastest with AGS. Getting back to that top with the careful planning should show a move forward
GW: Co-slowest along with along with the wap, Thank you Aiden for entering as this horse will take a little action because of last years' so-called decent performance
HS: Has run three of the same numbers, two of them around two turns, and I can see why people will argue him being on a lonely lead. Obviously if they let him chill out there he will be tough because he has some guts but would have to improve about 2.5 pts to win this, not happening unless a slow pace happens, which I doubt.
LR: After his two performances at Saratoga, I would ready to hand him this race. His last race, TG wise, is loaded with wideness, which those numbers I tend to question a little. That being said, he is still the fastest horse in the race and others will have to improve to catch him.
SS: SS's TG pattern is SCARY GOOD. It is EXACTLY like his prepping for the KY Derby, where he ran a monsterous race. The four race pattern is a thing of beauty. I fully expect him to run a top right into the breeding shed
Tiago: Co-slowest along with the president, thank you for being a money eater
Tiago and George Washington have no shot. Hard Spun can win, but only on a lonely lead and slow fractions. LR, Street Sense, Curlin and AGS all have shots at winning
Best Sheet for improvement: T - Street Sense and Curlin
Most Likely winner: Lawyer Ron
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I agree with just about everything you said. A nice read btw. The only point I think is worth mentioning is Lawyer Ron is a 9f horse in a 10f race.
I hope that there is a decent pace in this race. Street Sense could be pressing but to win he will need to sit back and wait. Carl Nafzger said he is ready to run like he was for the Tamba Bay Derby (not the Ky Derby). Is he suggesting that Any Given Saturday is The Horse to beat?
Monmouth is notoriously early speed bias. Someone else mentioned them killing the rail to make it play fair. That will hurt Calvin's preferred style. However, I think someone would finally decide to stay in the way as a few will be in front of him.