[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race - outsprinting some confirmed sprinters, who stalked from 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and finished 17th, 19th, and 20th....while Street Sense passed 17 horses without leaving the rail in what will go down as the dreamiest trip in modern Kentucky Derby history.

Assuming everyone breaks clean, John Velazquez on Lawyer Ron is the only one who knows how much early pressure Hard Spun will face.

Anyone who's seen JRV ride in similar situations all these years knows Hard Spun will get a free pass on the lead - as long as LR is able to track from the outside while more than a half length clear of pressure from the 3rd place runner.

That is unless JRV is instructed by Pletcher to do something else.

From what I could gather on Monmouth Parks website, there were 19 stake routes run on the dirt at Monmouth Park this year - the leader after the first call won 11 of them. Three of those wins at double digit odds.

If the track is like it was for much of the summer, and HS and LR both avoid going head-to-head, I believe they will make up the exacta. The real question will be which of the two will win...if the August version of LR shows up he will have little trouble wearing HS down in the final furlong. If not, Hard Spun can be very brave on the lead and might be an elusive target for LR and the others.

If the track is fair, HS and LR will still have a tactical edge over the rest of the field - but, they will both be very tough if there tactical edge is compounded with a track that totally suits them and works against their opposition.

This won't happen very often through your love of the silent kitten, but i agree with you here.