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Old 10-17-2007, 09:59 AM
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King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
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There is not a single horse in the Classic that I look at that I don't think has several huge question marks.

Curlin-IMO, the top 3yo this year. Just ran a huge race to beat Lawyer Ron. I think it's reasonable to wonder how much that might have taken out of him having to run so hard and also, keep in mind that he didn't look that great at Monmouth before. I know it was off of the layoff but it still must be considered.

Lawyer Ron-Obviously the top older male this year. As with Curlin, just ran a huge race to run second in the JCGC and one must wonder how much it might have taken out of him. He's also put up three straight 114+ figures and it's not easy to put up four straight for any horse. Don't like the fact that he lost to a horse that he should have beaten when last seen at Monmouth. Also, the expected strategy of letting him roll early might compromise his chances if he gets in a duel with Hard Spun up front.

Street Sense-Is he any better now than he was last year at this time? In last year's BC Juvenile, he ran a 108 figure. His last three have been 105/108/107. This coming after a 111/110 in the Derby and Preakness. He's obviously a good horse and has to be respected but I kind of get the feeling that he's not gotten any better this year. I thought he was being asked in his last and should have beaten Hard Spun but instead, when the real running started, Hard Spun put him away.

Any Given Saturday-Looked like he was ready to take the leap to the head of the class after the Dwyer and Haskell but then took three steps back in the Brooklyn. That was a very disappointing effort and it has to make anyone wonder which horse we'll see in the Classic. Even if it's the Haskell horse, that was a 113 effort; good enough to possibly win this but hardly something that should scare anyone away.

Hard Spun-Has a career high of 109 and I don't think anyone seriously believes that in a truly run race with a legit pace, he has a chance of sticking around at the finish. Lawyer Ron could be right up there with him, compromising the chances of both horses.

Tiago-Was all out to beat Awesome Gem with a 106 figure. While that figure was a career high and came on the heels of a 103 in the Swaps, neither of those figures suggest he's anywhere near the top group. I also think that his efforts in the Derby and Belmont show that same thing and make you wonder if he's just this year's version of Brother Derek; good in California but not so good outside of the state.

With a number of question marks surrounding each of the leading contenders and the prospect that even if they do run their best race, none of them are world beaters, I think now is the perfect time to send a horse like GW to the Classic. No, I do not expect him to win the race. I think that at best, he's looking at third or fourth. But I think it's worth taking a shot. They've got nothing to lose in trying this. His position in the breeding world as a world class miler is set. That would not change even if he were to win the Mile. Another loss in the Classic will not hurt that but I believe that a top five showing here could only enhance his reputation and I don't believe that is an unrealistic goal. I would feel a little different about this if I thought they were passing up a chance to win the Mile by sending him to the Classic but since they already have Excellent Art there, a horse that very well could go off favored, they are in a good position to take this kind of risk.
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Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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