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Originally Posted by brianwspencer
That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.
By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.
You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.
Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.
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Because of the way I think the race will be run, I don't give Hard Spun a shot in hell of doing anything. The others are my top four and frankly, I'm not sold on Street Sense or Any Given Saturday. If they both run their best races, I think they are in the mix. But just as people have been saying about Nobiz, I'm not sure that I see a better SS now than I did at this time last year. His Travers figure wasn't any better than the Juvenile and wasn't as good as his Derby and Preakness. Whereas usually the top 3yo's improve as the year goes on (Curlin, AGS and Hard Spun have), Street Sense has gone the wrong way. With AGS, he improved a ton in winning the Dwyer and the Haskell but I think his last race tempered a lot of the growing enthusiam about him. I feel that if Curlin and Lawyer Ron both run theirs, they are the only two that matter here. And I'm leery of that happening. The JCGC was a very tough race and it wouldn't be surprising to see one of them regress from it. For Lawyer Ron, it was his third straight 114+ race. Can he produce a fourth straight, all in the span of two months, at a distance that's a touch beyond his best, with another quality horse like Hard Spun challenging him up front instead of the pig from the JCGC?
I know all of this has made it seem like I'm sold on Nobiz having a shot to win. I'm not at all. I just am less sold on the quality and strengths of the others than it seems like most people are.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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