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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Just a few things...
1. What Lawyer Ron/Hard Spun does pacewise may be altered by the prescence of Mr. Umphrey and Rudy R. (assuming Diamond Stripes goes)
2. Personally I give Hard Spun almost no chance to win this race if all the probables go, regardless of pace, regardless of trips...
3. As I mentioned to Drugs before in another thread, Monmouth only gets one chance at hosting a Breeders Cup and if there are a parade of wire to wire winners on an obviously biased surface, they won't get another no matter how they handles the crowd, traffic, etc. Plus the fact that the races will be run in a different climate than the summer may alter how the track plays.4. Post Positions may play a big role in who does what early in the race...
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Their track has had a big speed bias most of this year, hasn't it? I don't really see why they should change it just to suit some of the more fancied runners. If Monmouth have had a speed bias for most of the year, the trainers will surely know what to expect.
What sort of weather can be expected in Monmouth later this month? If they are due for rain or very cold weather, there is every chance the track will quicken up even more.
I really haven't got a strong view on the race yet, but i do think it will revolve around what Hard Spun manages to do with Lawyer Ron (or the other way around).