Yeah but Charismatic hadnt done much prior to the Lexington Stakes. Thunder Gulch at age 2 won the Remsen, 2nd in the Hollywood Futurity and 2 in the Cowdin Stakes. At 3 he won the Florida Derby, and Fountain of Youth. After all that one bad race and he goes off at 25-1. If it wasnt for the one bad race--at Keeneland I believe--he doesnt go off anywhere above 8-1.