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Originally Posted by avance2000
taking into consideration only how the horses were in may and june of their 3yo year
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This is why I would pick Afleet Alex.
FINALLY after the Derby Rose figured out that this colt was a HUGE one-run colt. Rose gave him a ride in the Derby that was not bad in a general sense, but it was specifically bad for the horse he was on. By the Preakness and the Belmont he had learned how to ride him perfectly (which meant basically giving him the same ride he had in the Arkansas Derby) and the results were ultra-impressive. Since the original poster asked us to factor in how these colts performed in May and June of their 3yo seasons I would give the edge to Alex. I think that if he had stayed healthy he would have won the rest of his races last year (including the Travers and the BCC) and would have gone down as one of the all-time greats.
I also think the pace scenario would have favored him, but the more I think about this hypothetical race, the cooler it gets. There would be the three pacesetters and then in the second group you would have Barbaro and Smarty Jones. Pretty cool. But I think Alex would mow them all down in the stretch.
My longshot pick would still be Birdstone. On a dry track in a race of 10 or more furlongs, he remains an underrated animal.
Someone should do one of these for the other decades too. Its fun.