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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
You are arguing points that aren't relevent.
A horseplayer's job is to make money. In order to do that they make judgements about races being run on a given day. I have often bet, and sometimes won money on, horses that I didn't even think were best going into a race. There are many odds-on horses that I bet against knowing full well they are the likeliest winners of the race ( they VERY rarely aren't ). The bottom line is cashing...ie. making money. Being right is for losers. Knowing how to make money by making correct relative choices, and betting them properly, is ALL that matters.
On the point of LITF, if you choose to suggest that his ability is close to the reputation he gained prior to last year's BC be my guest, but it is a stubborn and difficult to logically defend position. I would guess you know that in this game it is very important to learn from your mistakes. There is nothing wrong with making incorrect judgements in individual cases, we all do it more often than not, but there is something very wrong ( and expensive ) about making the same mistakes over and over again. Luckily, one of the many great things about this game, is there are always future opportunities to correct mistakes of the past. How one deals with this ultimately seperates the winners and losers or the successful and unsuccessful.
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I agree that we need to learn from our mistakes. Some of my best winners have been horses who I changed my mind about. I was dead-wrong about Your Tent or Mine at the Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale. I didn't like him at all. He was tall and gangly and I just didn't like his work. When he madehis first start at Del Mar, I obviously did not like him at all. I had seen him work at the sale and didn't like him. Needless to say, he won that day. Not only did he win, but I thought he won very impressively. I completely changed my mind about him after his maiden race. I couldn't believe how wrong I was about him. He looked like a totally different horse from the horse I saw work in Florida. He had really grown into himself nicely. Here was a horse who I didn't like at all just 6 1/2 months earlier and now I thought he was a stakes horse. Anyway, I made a big bet on him in his next race which was the Hollywood Prevue. I bet $900 ($450 to win and place) on him that day. He won the race and went off at 6-1. I made a nice score on him.
With regard to LITF, I didn't particularly like him in the BC Sprint. I thought he was definitely one of the main contenders, but I was going to try to beat him. The horse I really liked was Atilla's Storm. He was 45-1. I bet on him to win and place. I also played some small exactas and trifectas using him along with Taste of Paradise, Imperialism, and LITF. I didn't use Silver Train. It wasn't that I didn't think he was good enough. I thought he was good enough. I had always liked him a lot. I liked him so much that he was actually on my watch list. The reason I didn't like him any more was because I thought there was something wrong with him. If my memory is right, I think he had been scratched at the gate by the vet a short time before the BC. I think it was in July or August.
If LITF would have run his best in the BC Sprint, he probably would not have won. But I do think he would have finished very close. I think he would have definitely hit the board.