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Originally Posted by justindew
With my self-imposed, six-hour vacation from betting on the horses coming to an end at the strike of midnight, I have come to the conclusion that it is time for me to completely revamp my game.
About a year ago, I shifted my wagering emphasis away from trying to identify the most likely winner and towards finding the best value. Clearly, something got lost in the transition, because this has been the worst year of my wagering career.
The following example illustrates my year perfectly:
-Ten-horse field
-I identify the 9-5 favorite as the most likely winner.
-I bet the 8-1 fourth choice because I think he should be 4-1.
-The favorite wins and my horse runs 3rd, slightly outrunning his odds.
-All of my tickets are losers.
Now, I know logic dictates that if I am correct in assessing a horse's true odds of winning, I will come out ahead in the long run. But I have to admit that I am not good enough to diferentiate between a horse with a 15% chance of winning, and a horse with a 10% chance of winning. Same for a horse with a 33% chance and one with a 20% chance. You get the idea.
I feel like I was a better bettor when I only bet on horses that I felt were THE most likely winner and also offered value. But it seems to me that most pros and authors will tell you that that is not the way to bet.
I would appreciate some feedback on this.
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Value betting is my style. And for it, I've probably lost a lot of $$$ not betting favorites enough, or including them the right way. But it is a patience game- You have to wait, and dump money to find those winning bets. But when you hit them, YOU HIT BIG! It's the way it goes. The strategy is not for everyone, but if you have the pateince to stick with it, I'm sure you'll hit some good ones. Because you're a good enough 'capper to find some diamonds in the rough. Just go with what you're comfortable with, and stick with it. If you have the patience, your good handicapping will shine through in the long-run.
One suggestion though: And when I suggest this, I'll say that I still struggle with this. If the race looks very chalky, pass on betting it, unless you thhink it's easy $$$. But easy money is almost non-existant in this game. So if you don't see any value, DON'T BET IT. I have trouble with this myself, but I'm getting better.