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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
That’s it? All you have to offer are unrelated questions as to whether I show a yearly profit and analogies about betting football games? I’ve stayed right on topic offering you my take on LITF and backing it up completely with facts. You don’t even mention anything I’ve offered. You merely say that you don’t know anything about Bris numbers. Well you wouldn’t necessarily have had to because I explained everything I posted and it actually is rather hard to deny the patterns. I guess you’re still more comfortable with the vague “he didn’t fire” hypothesis for those races.
Yes the Bris numbers are very reliable. I have improved tremendously using them. Like I said they give you a view of the race that you cannot find elsewhere. I am not touting them as some kind of simple solution to picking winners. Like I said I also relied heavily on replays in order to come to an opinion about LITF’s true class. I use several tools when handicapping. The Bris numbers did not predict that LITF would lose. That was my conclusion after noticing the consistent pattern of his performances. By no means am I implying that these numbers lead me to easy winners and yearly profits, there is much more to it than just looking at numbers. In an earlier post you were trying to back up your assertion that LITF had as much early speed as any horse running by stating that he ran a 43.2 half mile and won by ten lengths at GG. If you want to talk about data that is unreliable, it’s hard to beat looking at raw times.
Also I’m not implying that having an opinion that a horse will not win has much value. However when the horse routinely goes off at odds between 2:5 and 1:1 there is a great chance to make a nice score if you play the rest of the race or races correctly, but that’s no gimme. You can still screw it up like I did in the big pick five last week. I had 4 of 5, of course not using LITF, but I relied too much on Dubai Escapade so I didn’t have the winning combo.
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I heard your explanation loud and clear as to why LITF got beat in those 3 races. If you believe in those Bris figures, then your assessment sounds logical. I don't buy it. I've watched the horse a million times. I know he didn't fire in those races and I don't think it had much to do with who he was facing. If LITF would have run at Golden Gate this past Saturday against a bad field, I don't think he would have run 1:07 1/5. I think he would have run lousy on Saturday no matter where he ran. I would say the same for Dubai Escapade. She didn't have it on Saturday. If I explained to you that I had some figures that showed that Dubai Escapade ran her best this past Saturday and she got beat because she was totally overmatched, I don't think you would buy it.
I never said that LITF's going :43 1/5 at GG proved he was as fast as anyone. I know the track at GG is scorched and it is hard to compare to other tracks. But LITF has only run at GG a few of times. He's run all over the country. In every race he ever ran last year including the BC Sprint, LITF was always within a length of the lead no matter what the fractions were. I think he can pretty much keep up with anyone when he has it. There may be a few horses that have a little more early speed than him, but he has enough speed so that nobody is going to really get away from him.
To me, a horse "not firing" is not a vague hypothesis. To be a successful handicapper, you have to be a good judge of this. We've seen many really good horses lose. When they lose, we always have to ask the question of whether they simply were not good enough or did they lose because they didn't fire. When Saint Liam didn't hit the board at Santa Anita, was it because he wasn't good enough or was it because he didn't fire? It may have been a combination of both. I would say he definitely didn't fire, but I don't know if he would have beaten Rock Hard Ten even if he did fire. You could argue that RHT wasn't that impressive that day. He only beat Congrats by about a length. Congrats is not a good horse at all. I disagree. I think Congrats ran huge that day. He's never been the same since, but that day he ran great.
Anyway, you're not going to change my mind about LITF and I'm not going to change yours. And even though I'm confident that I'm right, it's possible that I have misjudged LITF. I've been wrong before and I could be wrong in this case. I don't think I'm wrong but it is certainly possible.
There is a chance that the truth is somewhere in between. LITF may not have fired in those races but even if he would have fired, maybe he would have still lost. He may have finished much closer but he may have still lost.