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Originally Posted by Kasept
It's a great hypo, and the thing you have to qualify is whether all are 100% at their finest the day of the running...
If they are, you also have to acknowledge the pace scenario would be red hot and your most likely winner would be coming from off the pace.
Do you also get to assume that the 20 post doesn't destroy your chances? Or are the posts listed is if they are running at Churchill from those slots? Are we assuming there's no extreme trouble for anyone too?
All those conditions would point to Monarchos since he ran down as good a group as we've had in the Derby during that period chasing hot fractions.. And he did it earning huge figures... And from an extreme post.
1. Monarchos
2. Point Given
3. Smarty Jones
4. Perfect Drift
5. Empire Maker
6. Barbaro
7. Afleet Alex
8. Ten Most Wanted
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good responses all.
of course people can set up the hypothetical any way they desire, but my intention was simply to say "these 20 horses reasonably healthy, and in their typical form during may and june of their 3yo years." not necessarily their very best day ever. i know this is pretty vague, but that was the discussion we had.
as for post positions, i just did 20 horses because that is the standard # of derby entrants nowadays. in my hypothetical scenario it is 20 horses leaving from the churchill starting gate in these positions. that is why i put the horses that i included just to get a full field of 20 (giacomo and proud citizen) in the worst positions and put most of the favorites near the middle.
personally i think the pace would be extremely fast - and i would like point given over afleet alex and - as my long shot - aptitude.